California is not ready for a flu pandemic

California health officials say an avian flu pandemic would quickly overwhelm the healthcare system. The state lacks sufficient beds, medical staff and equipment for a pandemic, according to yesterday's Los Angeles Times.

Los Angeles County and the rest of California have nowhere near the capacity to treat the hundreds of thousands of people who might need medical care should a pandemic flu strike, according to health officials and experts across the state.

[snip]

A county survey released in March showed that 67% of hospitals in L.A. County that responded to a survey in 2005 did not have plans for coping with a flu pandemic.

As is true everywhere, one big issue is the lack of surge capacity...

At a recent statewide summit on pandemic flu preparedness, Dr. Mark Horton, the state health officer, said "surge capacity," or the ability of hospitals to handle huge waves of patients, is "perhaps going to be our single greatest challenge in addressing the pandemic."

"We don't have enough hospital beds to take care of patients in a regular, ordinary flu season," said Dr. Michael Sexton, president of the California Medical Assn.

[snip]

"There will never be enough surge capacity in our existing hospitals," Dr. Jonathan Fielding, Los Angeles County public health director, said at the summit last month. "Even if there were enough beds — which there won't be — there won't be enough people. We have trouble getting enough nurses now."

The problem exists statewide, said Backer, the state public health official. [Dr. Howard Backer is an official with the California Department of Health Services.]

[snip]

For its part, the county is creating a reserve volunteer medical registry of doctors, nurses and respiratory therapists who could be called out in an emergency, [Kay] Fruhwirth said. The county already has a reserve corps of about 600 retired doctors and nurses whose licenses are not active. [Fruhwirth is assistant director of the Los Angeles County emergency medical services agency.]

The county also is identifying additional "surge capacity" in schools, gymnasiums and community centers that could house and feed ill patients, Fielding said.

As to what kind of surge we're talking about...

If a pandemic of up to 18 months did occur, about 30% of the population in affected areas could fall ill, the federal government estimates.

In Los Angeles County, that translates to 3 million people, and depending on the severity of the pandemic, between 30,000 and 330,000 of them might need hospitalization.

Note that is not an estimate for all of California, but just Los Angeles County.