Dr. Robert Webster: Observations and advice on H5N1

My November-December issue of AARP The Magazine* arrived the other day and it has an interview conducted in August with prominent virologist Dr. Robert Webster. (How prominent? Last month, Webster was named to a 21-person task force that will advise the World Health Organization on avian and pandemic influenza issues.) The article begins:

In the world of public health, Robert G. Webster is a giant. Forty years ago the virologist at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis made history when he helped reformulate the routine flu shot. ...

Webster, 74, is also a leader in understanding how flu viruses emerge and spread. He's been working in recent years to try to understand avian flu - a strain of influenza virus that alarms him as no flu he's ever studied has. He sees in it the potential for an influenza pandemic similar to the one in 1918, which killed an estimated 40 million to 50 million people worldwide.

"For 40 years, I've been saying that we're bound to have another worldwide influenza event," says Webster. "I have to tell you: this one is the closest we've gotten to that. I hope to God it doesn't occur, because this is the worst influenza I've ever seen in terms of its killing capacity in animals. You put it into chickens this afternoon, they're all dead tomorrow."

In this article, Webster:

• Suggests a five-year time-frame in which either an H5N1 pandemic might emerge or the risk will decline.


• Recommends having a three-month stockpile of food and necessities.


• Recommends self-isolation during any pandemic.


• Recommends getting a personal supply of an antiviral drug (Tamiflu or Relenza). [Discussed further in this post.]

Here are some excerpts from the Q&A, beginning with this comment from Dr. Webster:

"We may have five years to get things right before H5N1 either becomes a pandemic - or fizzles out. If we have that time, we'll probably get it right. That's enough time for scientists to develop new vaccines and antiviral medications, and get them manufactured and stockpiled."

[snip]

Q: If H5N1 mutates, what could our readers do to protect themselves?

A: You mean if they can't get a vaccine? I'd say: If they have a house in the hills, then go to it - and stay there for three months. And have enough food there already so that you can stay as far away from your neighbors as possible."

Q: So you are advocating that people stockpile food and medicine?

A: Absolutely. Most of us can afford to buy dry food for three months. One bottle of Clorox [bleach] is enough to purify all the water you need out of the local river.

Q: Michael Leavitt, Secretary of Health and Human Services, has warned that if avian flu hits, we shouldn't count on help from the federal government. Do you find that shocking?

A: I think that Leavitt is very responsible when he tells people to get their own houses in order. If this killer virus hits, the country's infrastructure will fall apart. The hospitals will be overloaded. Most of us don't realize how interdependent we are for food. In a pandemic, people would get sick, the gasoline supply would stop, food would not be there.

[snip]

Q: Why get the standard flu shot?

A: It may do a little bit against bird flu. A little bit. Another thing: if you can get the antiviral drugs Tamiflu or Relenza, have them on hand. ...I keep a supply myself. And I always take it with me when I travel - just in case I get exposed.

[snip]

Q: Does your wife ever say, "Sweetheart, you're a bit ghoulish"?

A: Well, yes. My wife didn't really want to believe that it was necessary to stockpile food. So I started to do it.

While AARP The Magazine has a Web site, it only publishes selected material from the print magazine. The Webster interview is not available online. Check for the magazine at your public library.

FOOTNOTES:
I've posted other information from Dr. Webster:

• A Very Promiscuous and Efficient Killer


• Dr. Robert Webster: 50-50 chance H5N1 will go human-to-human

Dr. Webster's biography is on the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital Web site.

*The AARP (formerly named American Association of Retired Persons) is a nonprofit membership organization for people age 50 and over. Yes, I'm a member.